Following a prolonged business slowdown in 2025, marked by weak investment, sluggish export, high interest rates and persistent inflation, the private sector is looking for a turnaround in 2026. For Bangladesh’s business community, the year 2026 is not about political transitions; it is about whether confidence can return to the economy. Over the past few years, businesses have operated in survival mode. Currency volatility, high borrowing costs, weak demand, energy uncertainty, and regulatory unpredictability have forced many firms to postpone expansion, freeze hiring, or divert capital elsewhere. Even profitable companies have become cautious. The result is visible in the data: low private investment, slow job creation, and subdued growth momentum. The new government inherits this reality. What the private sector now needs is not grand promises, but clarity and credibility.
Investment does not respond first to incentives. It responds to confidence. At present, confidence remains fragile. Policy reversals, inconsistent enforcement, and unresolved weaknesses in the banking sector have made businesses defensive. Domestic investors hesitate to reinvest their retained earnings. Foreign investors compare Bangladesh not to its past performance, but to competing destinations in the region.
The most important signal the new government can send is predictability. Stable rules, transparent decision-making, and respect for contracts matter more than short-term concessions. Without these, no tax break or stimulus package will unlock meaningful private investment.
High interest rates and tight credit conditions have become a major constraint, particularly for small and medium enterprises. Access to finance has narrowed just as operating costs have risen. For many firms, expansion is no longer a question of demand, but of affordability. Businesses understand the
need to control inflation and stabilise the macroeconomic condition. However, prolonged financial stress risks turning stabilisation into stagnation. When credit is scarce or expensive, firms delay investment, productivity suffers, and jobs disappear. What the private sector wants is not artificially cheap money, but a credible roadmap for financial sector reform. Cleaning up non-performing loans, improving governance, and restoring trust in banks would lower risk premiums and revive productive lending.
Predictability is the clearest signal the new government can send. Stable rules, transparent decisions and respect for contracts matter far more than short‑term concessions. Without them, no tax break or stimulus will unlock real private investment.
Unemployment, especially among young and educated workers, is often treated as a social issue. It is also a core business concern. Companies need skilled and motivated employees. They also need consumers with purchasing power. An economy that fails to create jobs weakens both supply and demand. Over time, talent leaves, informality rises, and growth
potential erodes.
Job creation does not require massive new megaprojects. It requires an environment where small and medium enterprises, light manufacturing, logistics, construction, and services can grow. These sectors are labour‑intensive and quick to respond if regulatory bottlenecks are reduced and financing improves.
The expectations are practical but not easy to address. First, both institutional and regulatory reform initiatives, particularly in the financial sectors, must continue and move beyond cosmetic fixes. Transparency, accountability, credible enforcement, and honest communication about constraints and timelines are essential to restore trust and revive productive lending. Second, policy predictability must become a governing principle. Simplified taxation, streamlined licensing, and consistent regulation would do more to unlock investment than any short‑term stimulus. Third, growth must be explicitly linked to employment. Supporting small and medium enterprises, light manufacturing, construction, and services can generate jobs faster than capital‑intensive projects. Fourth, human capital policy must become market‑driven. Education and training systems need closer alignment with labour market demand, particularly for youth and women. Businesses do not expect instant recovery. They expect seriousness.
The new government begins its term under economic strain, but that also creates opportunity. Early, credible signals can restore confidence faster than any stimulus package. Capital is cautious, not absent. It is waiting. If 2026 delivers predictability, discipline, and reform intent, investment will follow and jobs will return. If uncertainty persists, hesitation will deepen.
For the private sector, the message is simple: growth will not come from slogans. It will come from signals.
Ferdaus Ara Begum
CEO, BUILD